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“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”

Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.

Some legal experts and members of the investment community believe it’s possible the Supreme Court could hear a prediction market case at some point over the next six or seven months.

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While thousands of new casino games reach the market every year – with research suggesting the number of releases is growing by around 10% each quarter – volume does not necessarily equate to variety. Developing something genuinely different means taking a risk, while the industry’s familiar practice of reskinning existing games, or adapting mechanics and concepts that have already proved successful, offers a much safer commercial proposition.

For James Curwen, chief executive at Yggdrasil, the tension between the industry’s need for fresh content and the commercial realities of producing it goes to the heart of the challenge.

“The industry has a content problem,” he says. “There are thousands of games being released and too many of them are variations of something that already exists.

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The DSWV said the findings should prompt a thorough reassessment of official black market size estimates in Germany.

The DOCV, another trade body representing licensed online casino operators in Germany, also expressed support for the prosecutorial efforts. However, it emphasised that the raid exposed regulatory gaps which had allowed organised crime to flourish.

Kevin O’Neal, a DOCV board member, argued the scale of the investigation calls the GGL’s broader black market estimates into question. He cited the regulator’s 2025 activity report, which put the 2024 share at 23% (€547 million in gross gaming revenue), against Nielsen data suggesting a share of around 56%.