Luck Magic

What is Luck Magic?

With odds of 17% on Kalshi’s futures market, the Rams are the only NFL team to open the season with double-digit odds. The probability translates to +488 in American odds, a figure that is regarded as comparatively low for a Super Bowl favourite. But history is not on the Rams’ side – all of the last 25 NFL teams to open a season with futures odds of +500 or lower have failed to win the Super Bowl, according to Yahoo Sports.

In May, the NFL sent a letter to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission with a list of certain event contracts it deemed objectionable. By July, the league doubled down with public comments to the CFTC after the agency issued draft regulations for the contracts. The NFL cited props on player injuries, penalty totals and missed field goals as those that fit the bill. Goodell, however, conceded that the NFL has held discussions regarding prediction markets as public policy evolves.

Two other leagues, Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, have each signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC that allows participating teams to partner with the operators.

What is Luck Magic?

Last Saturday, on the same day that Ohio State University made its season debut in college football, James teased a new commercial relationship with Polymarket. James, an ardent Buckeyes’ supporter, posted a brief video on social media platform X, where he announced his partnership with the controversial platform. While college football fans watched Ohio State thrash Miami (Ohio) 56-3, industry stakeholders wondered aloud which athletes would join “King James”.

After all, James indicated in the post that more details would be forthcoming. By Tuesday, the stakeholders received their answer when Polymarket aired a splashy ad that received more than 15.5 million views on James’ X page.

Following an extended three-day holiday for Labor Day Weekend, Polymarket went live with a colourful 90-second spot directed by award-winning filmmaker Peter Berg, the director of the acclaimed television series Friday Night Lights. The spot, which featured the likes of Eli Manning, Derek Jeter, Richard Sherman, John Leguizamo and Spike Lee, among other celebrities, coincided with the launch of Squads, a new social experience within the US Polymarket app.  

How to play Luck Magic

The existence of a new competitor does not automatically mean sportsbook revenue will collapse. But valuations do not require proof of collapse to fall. A loss of confidence in future growth can be enough.

And now sportsbooks are joining the prediction market race themselves. DraftKings has moved into the market, while Flutter is also developing its presence. That could make prediction markets an additional source of revenue rather than a straightforward threat.

But it also requires investment at exactly the time shareholders are demanding better returns. Flutter’s recent results illustrate the tension. US adjusted EBITDA fell sharply in the first half of 2026, while the company continues to invest in FanDuel Predicts and other initiatives aimed at future growth.